Other Music from a... Different Kitchen

Subject: Instant Poll Results for Debate 2

Our client station in Reno (KRNV) once again brought in a group of registered voters to provide their real-time response to Friday night's debate, registering their second-by-second reactions to each candidate's statements and answering "instant poll questions" about their voting intentions and who they thought won the debate. Voters were then asked to explain their reactions during a special one-hour broadcast following the debate, which also included interviews from both Nevada Senators and top strategists for both campaigns, Karl Rove and Mary Beth Cahill.

Once again, the reactions among those coming into tonight's debate supporting either candidate did not waver in their convictions, consistently responding in favor of their own candidate and against the other. This time, the Undecideds were much more mixed: last Thursday, they were much more supportive of Kerry, but by the second debate they often sided with the President instead.

That's why their reactions at the end of the night were so surprising:


Pre-Debate Voting Intention

Bush 35%

Kerry 35%

Undecided 30%

Note: once again, we balanced the mix of Bush and Kerry supporters and intentionally oversampled Undecideds so that we would have enough on our panel for meaningful representation.


Who Won the Debate

Bush 39%

Kerry 48%

Tied 13%

Committed voters didn't switch sides, but Undecideds did shift slightly in favor of Kerry (not enough to be statistically significant). While the percentages shown here seem to suggest a bigger win for Kerry, it's important to note that our intentional oversampling of Undecideds make the swing much more pronounced that it really is.


Post-Debate Voting Intention

Bush 32%

Kerry 59%

Undecided 9%


This was by far the biggest surprise: again, while committed voters stuck to their guns, Undecideds clearly saw enough from Kerry in this second debate to now give the Senator their support (by a four-to-one margin over President Bush). Again, the oversampling of Undecideds wildly exaggerates the margin of victory for Kerry, but if these numbers hold (our instant polls after the first debate were remarkably predictive of the national surveys) then we will definitely see Kerry continuing to tick upward as we head into the third debate.

Final note: the President made two statements tonight which brought audible gasps from our panel: first, when he talked down debate host Charlie Gibson during follow-up questions about a military draft, and again when he tried to defend his position against the importation of prescription drugs from Canada. He also draw a few laughs of disbelief (from Democrats) when he tried to defend his position on the environment.


The final debate:

For Wednesday night's final Presidential debate, KRNV-TV in Reno once again invited a panel of local voters to register their second-by-second reaction to each candidate's statements by using our real-time response "dial-testing" technology. The voter panel was then asked to share their opinions during a special live broadcast immediately following the debate, which also included interviews with Gen. Wesley Clark, White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card, and both U.S. Senators from Nevada.

As with both of the first two debates, committed voters once again tended to side with their own candidate and react negatively to his opponent - none of the Bush or Kerry supporters changed their minds. Therefore, it's the reaction among Undecideds which once again proved most surprising.

After the first debate, most Undecideds felt that Senator Kerry won the debate, but not by a strong enough margin to get all of them "off the fence." After the debate, half were still not ready to make a choice, but those who did felt that Kerry did such a good job that they were ready to give him their support (by a three-to-one margin over President Bush).

Undecideds thought the President turned in a much stronger performance after the second debate, enough to call it a draw. That said, most also felt that they had finally seen enough of both candidates to finally make their choice, and Kerry's continued strong performance ultimately led them to choose the Senator by a four-to-one margin over Bush.

After the last debate, most of the remaining Undecideds are still finding it very hard to make a choice. Most tend to think that Kerry did slightly better than Bush during the debate, but not by enough to win their votes. At the same time, the lone Undecided who thought that the President won the debate is now ready to give Bush his vote.

Results from our first two debates were almost identical to those published later by several major national polls. What we now expect is to see those polls either holding steady, or for the President gain perhaps a point at most.


Pre-Debate Voting Intent (unweighted)

Bush 39%

Kerry 39%

Undecided 22%

Once again, we intentionally oversampled Undecideds so that they would have meaningful representation on our panel. Most national polls now show the two candidates basically tied (with just over 45% each), leaving just 6% undecided.


Who Won the Final Debate

Bush 44%

Kerry 50%

Undecided 6%

Again, Undecideds gave a slight nod to Kerry, who's apparent margin of victory is exaggerated by our oversampling of Undecideds. The true margin of victory for Kerry is practically negligible.


Post-Debate Voting Intent (weighted)

Bush 48%

Kerry 47%

Undecided 5%

Once we factor out the oversampling of Undecideds, we see Bush ticking up in the post-debate polls by perhaps one point. In short, it's still anyone's race!