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Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Latest election Poll Numbers Discussed and new R&B via Trevor Nelson examined  

Starting macro:

- Wake Up America: This Is How Our Allies See Us (The Greater Nomadic Council)

Meanwhile, the "international coalition" of allied forces in Iraq begins to fall apart. (Los Angeles Times)

Election-wise, it's only March but it's already getting ugly:
- New Bush ad accuses Kerry of turning his back on soldiers (San Fransisco Chronicle) (This from the guy who wanted to cut the troops' combat pay.) (The Atlanta Journal-Constitution)

- Kerry, Under Attack, Questions Bush's Credibility. (Reuters)
And the polls have bad news for Bush and Kerry:
Findings from the most recent Times/CBS News poll explored in "Nation's Direction Prompts Voters' Concern, Poll Finds":

By a margin of greater than 30 points, more people said the policies of Mr. Bush's administration had reduced the number of jobs in the country rather than increased them.

Perhaps most significant for Mr. Bush, the number of Americans who think that the nation is heading in the wrong direction is now 54 percent, as high as it has been in his presidency. The right direction/wrong direction figure is a measure that pollsters view as a highly reliable early indicator of problems for an incumbent.

But the biggest difficulty for Mr. Bush is the perception of his management of the economy. The number of Americans who say they approve of his economic record is now among the lowest of his presidency, 38 percent. In addition, 57 percent of voters said they were uneasy about Mr. Bush's ability to make the right decision on the economy, compared with just 39 percent who said they had confidence in his economic-decision making. Voters were evenly split over whether they were uneasy or confident about Mr. Kerry's ability to make economic decisions.

By 57 percent to 33 percent, respondents said that Mr. Kerry says what people want to hear, rather than what he believes in. By contrast, 45 percent said Mr. Bush says what people want to hear, while 51 percent said he says what he means. (New York Times)

And from "[Gallup] Poll finds pessimism about U.S. direction":

60% said they were dissatisfied with "the way things are going in the United States at this time." Except for a survey two weeks before the invasion of Iraq a year ago, that is the most negative reading since 1996.

Bush's job-approval rating was a respectable 50%, however, which has been a sort of dividing line for presidents seeking re-election. Since 1948, no president who maintained an average job-approval rating of 50% or better in his re-election year has lost a bid for a second term. No president with a rating below 50% has won. (USA Today)
While come November, be very scared if Florida becomes the deciding state again:
Four years after Florida made a mockery of American elections, there is every reason to believe it could happen again.

In 2002, in the primary race for governor between Janet Reno and Bill McBride, electronic voting problems were so widespread they cast doubt on the outcome. Many Miami-Dade County votes were not counted on election night because machines were shut down improperly. One precinct with over 1,000 eligible voters recorded no votes, despite a 33 percent turnout statewide. Election workers spent days hunting for lost votes, while Floridians waited, in an uncomfortable replay of 2000, to see whether Mr. McBride's victory margin, which had dwindled to less than 10,000, would hold up.

This past Tuesday, even though turnout was minimal, there were problems. Voters were wrongly given computer cards that let them vote only on local issues, not in the presidential primary. Machines did not work. And there were, no doubt, other mishaps that did not come to light because of the stunning lack of transparency around voting in the state. When a Times editorial writer dropped in on one Palm Beach precinct where there were reports of malfunctioning machines, county officials called the police to remove him.

The biggest danger of electronic voting, however, cannot be seen from the outside. Computer scientists warn that votes, and whole elections, can be stolen by rigging the code that runs the machines. The only defense is a paper record of every vote cast, a "voter-verified paper trail," which can be counted if the machines' tallies are suspect. Given its history, Florida should be a leader in requiring paper trails. But election officials, including Theresa LePore, the Palm Beach County elections supervisor who was responsible for the butterfly ballot, have refused to put them in place.
From "Florida as the Next Florida" (New York Times)
Related:
- Poll: Kerry, Bush tied in Pennsylvania. (MLive.com)
- Poll shows Nader could hurt Kerry in Pennsylvania. (San Jose Mercury News)

Info from a friend on one of the many jumpoffs at SXSW:
If you're coming to austin this week, you do not want to miss the scion
showcase on Wednesday 3/17.

Featuring Austin's hottest dj crew: Parakitachi
LA's own djs haul & mason (2 guys; 4 turntables: must see)
and a very special guest appearance from Pete Rock
Click here for more info and RSVP

Thulani Davis writes about how a new study on 'hip-hop' sexuality finds anti-woman strain—even among young women—in "The Height of Disrespect." Have we reached the point when this culture has to finally looks at itself in the mirror and really examine the effect it's having on our children (and I'm saying that as someone who has no kids)? (Village Voice)

The future for any record labels and artists with vision:
- eMusicLive
- Disc Live
- Instant Live (owned by Clear Channel aka Satan)

Sasha Frere-Jones on why Timbaland is The Beatles and The Neptunes are The Stones: Gandalf Gets Swivey on the Wheels. (Village Voice)

UK hip hop now influences American hip hop: did y'all hear the new Joe Budden jumpoff on Hot 97 this morning called "Wait a Minute" or "Just a Minute" (or something like that)? I know Billy Squire's "The Big Beat" is a long-established breakbeat in hip hop but the way it was flipped on this track sounded pretty much like Dizzee Rascal's "Fix Up, Look Sharp." Man, that's kinda f-cked up, couldn't he have just jumped on a remix of Dizzee's joint and given him a helping hand trying to break over here?

Speaking of the UK, it's kind of bugged how they regularly scoop their American counterparts with the latest remixes and tracks on their radio shows over there. On a station like Hot 97 in New York, where half of the on-air personalities are mixtape DJ's anyway, shouldn't their playlist have the newest, most exclusive ish of any station anywhere? After all, isn't most of this music being made over here? Here's a rundown of new R&B heard via Trevor Nelson's Radio One (UK) show worth looking out for (note: archive listeners this link is only good until 3/21/04. Afterwards, see tracklisting from this show here):
- Brandy w/ Timbaland – In 2 Da Music

- Usher – Caught Up: this ish was ridiculous, like a stripped down version of The Jacksons "Can You Feel It" with a Neptunes feel.

- Usher – Bad Girl: this sounded like the Neptunes channeling Lenny Kravitz (which I guess is basically what N*E*R*D is) except, unvbelievably, it was actually Jam & Lewis doing some of freshest ish they've come up with in a long time.

- Deeni feat. Jay-Z – So Hood: this is probably some bootleg ish as they flipped Hov's "December 4th" beat and then jacked one of his verses from the original. Hot as f-ck though.

- N*E*R*D – She Wants to Move (remix): not sure if this was the much-discussed, little-heard DFA remix, but it sounded good with it's fattened up bass and the guitar taken out for maximum dancefloor action.

- Amy Winehouse – In My Bed (remix): not the Dru Hill song but some (presumably) British singer flippin' Nas's "Made You Look" beat to great effect for an R&B jawn.
While on Skitz & Rodney P's "Original Fever" show, they dropped a (I'm assuming) bootleg mash-up mix of Hov's "99 Problems" that was using a lot of Licensed to Ill-era Beastie Boys samples.

Getting back to R&B though, I'm really feeling the new (?) Avant single "Don't Take Your Love Away" (reg required). Others may disagree but I have to say I think R&B is in a really good place right now. Going back to the era of the early 70's AM Radio soul sound has been a happy development as there's been a lot of great records come out in the last 6-12 months.

And finally, anyone else think that Cam'ron's "Shake" is biting Talib Kweli's "Move Somethin'" (the Kweli clip doesn't play the right part of the song to illustrate my point, but it'll help jog your memory so you can make the comparison)? (mp3 sample links courtesy: hiphopsite.com | UBL/ARTISTDirect)

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